Explainer: Understand the second wave of corona from epidemic experts; This was bound to happen, we were left behind in the preparations
The dreaded second wave of Corona has started breaking all records. For the first time in India, more than three and a half lakh new cases have been reported in 24 hours. These are the highest in terms of cases in any country in any wave in the world. We have become the leader in the world in terms of new cases, leaving behind America and Brazil. Active cases are also increasing. Why did the second wave come? How will it stop? We had discussions with the country's well-known public health policy expert and epidemiologist Dr. Chandrakant Laharia about the questions related to it. Let us understand in his own words what the second wave is and why it is becoming so deadly…
Q. What are the reasons why the second wave of the corona is so fast?
To understand the second wave we have to understand epistemology. It is common in epidemics to have more than one wave. We saw this in 1918 also during the Spanish flu. Even at that time, the second wave proved to be more dangerous. We have seen the same in different countries regarding Covid-19.
With regard to wave, we look at three things in epidemiology - agent (virus), host (human), and environment (environment or environment). This wave is fixed on it. We understand this in turn ...
1. First, let's talk about the agent. Abroad, we have seen double mutants of coronavirus and now even triple mutant variants. There has not been a large-scale genome study of the virus in India, but we can still consider it the basis of the second wave. Now the virus has become more contagious. Being able to dodge the immunity already made in the body.
2. The second thing is the host ie humans. People were more careful at the time of the first wave. They were imprisoned in homes only. There has been a big change in his behavior. The results have also changed. The transition to the first wave in Mumbai was at a level comparable to the slums. This time, most of the cases have come from a highrise. It is clear that people had accepted that the virus has been eradicated and their negligence is heavy on them. When a national survey was done in January, it was found that only 10% of people have antibodies. This means that 90% of the people were at risk of the corona. People were affected by not following the Corona protocol.
3. The third thing comes from the environment, ie environment or environment. The government kept saying that the Covid-19 protocol should be followed. But those who were speaking like this did not follow it. People also lost their trust if they saw the difference between words and actions. We also saw this at the Kumbh Mela or election rallies.
In this way, the participation of all three factors for the second wave is clearly visible. The relationship between these three factories always sets the wave in epidemics. When we saw that two-three waves had occurred in many countries only last year, then we started thinking that this epidemic was gone. This was our omission. If efforts were made at that time, the effect of the second wave could be reduced. This second wave was sure to come.
Q. How long will this round of the second wave last and how will it descend?
The situation we are seeing today is the result of 14 days old case. During this time, the virus went into the body and remained in incubation. Holi or election rallies were followed by big events and only after that the infection spread. It is very difficult to tell when the peak will arrive. This will be determined by what the behavior of the people is and how it is going to happen next. Given the increased infection, a fall may be seen in 4 to 6 weeks. It also needs to be seen whether the infection is spreading to new territory. Numbers will start falling after the peak. But this does not mean that like February, 10,000 cases will be reached all of a sudden. In 6 weeks, people's behavior will determine what effect the virus shows.
Q. What are the ways to avoid this?
The good thing is that the virus is now a year old. We know a lot more about it than a year ago. To avoid this, you have to focus on 5 basic things …
This time the virus has become more powerful than the previous wave. If a member has an infection, then there is an increased risk for other family members as well. Follow the stated behavior to avoid Covid-19. Wash hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing at the exit.
Regardless of whether or not there is a lockdown in your area, limit outdoor activities. Do not leave the house at all if it is not necessary. Try to keep yourself isolated from the crowd.
Get checked if you have any symptoms. The sooner you get tested, the sooner you will be able to eliminate this virus. During this, isolate yourself. This will greatly reduce the possibility of the virus reaching your family.
If you are eligible to apply for the vaccine, then get the vaccine. This will protect you from severe symptoms of the vaccine.
We have seen that Corona has brought the health system of good countries to its knees. In such a situation, not only do we have to mold ourselves in the New Normal, but the people around them also have to be encouraged to take precautions.
